Market Outlook
for the coming week!
In the coming
week, developments related to roll-out of Goods and Service Tax (GST), progress
of monsoon rains, domestic and global macroeconomic data, trend in global
markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic
institutional investors (DIIs),
the movement of
rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the
bourses.
Domestic stock
markets will remain closed on Monday, 26 June 2017 on account of Id-Ul-Fitr
(Ramzan Id).
The market may
remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options
(F&O) segment from the near month June 2017 series to July 2017 series. The
near month June 2017 derivatives contract expire on Thursday, 29 June 2017.
The progress of
monsoon rains will be closely watched. The IMD said that for the country as a
whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon upto 22 June has been 4%
above the Long Period Average (LPA). The June-September southwest monsoon is
critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the
country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation.
The Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD) in its second stage forecast of Southwest
monsoon seasonal rainfall issued on 6 June 2017 had said that quantitatively,
monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the
long period average (LPA) with an error of ± 4%.
The
implementation of landmark tax reform Goods and Service Tax (GST) will be
closely watched. All the States and Union Territories (having assemblies),
except the State of Jammu & Kashmir, have approved the State Goods and
Services Tax (SGST) Act. Almost the entire country including all the 30
States/UTs are now on board and ready for the roll-out of GST.
On the night of
30 June 2017, there will be a special function in the Central Hall of
Parliament House wherein a number of programs will be witness to the change in
tax structure and implementation of GST across the country between the night of
June 30 and July 1. The government expects GST to revolutionise India's taxing
system and is being marketed as one nation one tax.
The
infrastructure output data for May 2017 will be declared by government on
Friday, 30 June 2017. Infrastructure output went up 2.5% year-on-year in April
of 2017 after an upwardly revised 5.3% rise in March.
On the global
front, the US durable goods orders for May 2017 will be released on Monday, 26
June 2017. New orders for US manufactured durable goods fell 0.7%
month-over-month in April 2017, following an upwardly revised 2.3% jump in
March.
The US GDP growth
rate will be declared on Thursday, 29 June 2017. The US economy expanded an
annualized 1.2% on quarter in the first three months of 2017, better than the
advance estimate of 0.7% growth.
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